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Properties of Treasury returns

  • Riskless in dollar terms when held to maturity
  • Risky over other terms
  • Short Treasuries track inflation pretty well (Fisher equation)
  • Treasury Bills are discount instruments
  • Treasury Bonds and Notes offer Coupons
  • TIPs are inflation-indexed Treasuries (like those in England and Israel) are in the works
  • Recall the the yield is the interest rate at which the bond is fairly priced
  • Interest is exempt from state taxes
  • Agencies may be illiquid and/or not carry ``full faith and credit'' guarantee

photo of Phil Dybvig
Phil Dybvig

Government bonds and various other ``fixed-income'' securities are especially suitable for study using quantitative models. It is relatively straightforward to quantify the cash flows they provide, and the interest rate uncertainty provides plenty of complexity to model.

Several interesting changes have influenced Treasury markets recently. One is the introduction of TIPs -- inflation-adjusted Treasuries whose cash flows are adjusted by lagged inflation. Another change is the repurchase by the government of large quantities of Treasury Bonds. According to some traders, this has created a shortage of Treasury bonds, and Treasury bonds are now unreasonably expensive at the long end.


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Copyright © Philip H. Dybvig 1997, 2000